TCN Challenges GenCos’ Claims, Defends 8,700MW Grid Capacity Says NERC’s Q1 2026 report shows poor generation availability—not transmission—is Nigeria’s biggest electricity constraint By Raymond Enoch

The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has strongly challenged claims by the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) that thousands of megawatts of electricity are stranded daily due to the country’s weak transmission network, insisting that the real bottleneck in Nigeria’s electricity supply chain lies with inadequate power generation rather than the national grid.

In a detailed response to a report published by THISDAY on July 28, 2026, TCN argued that audited figures contained in the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) First Quarter 2026 Report contradict allegations that the national grid can only wheel about 4,500 megawatts despite an installed generation capacity exceeding 15,500MW.

According to the transmission company, the regulator’s report shows that the average generation capacity declared available by the country’s 28 grid-connected power plants during the first quarter of 2026 stood at 4,457.96MW—a figure submitted by the generating companies themselves to the System Operator.

TCN maintained that this figure, which closely aligns with the 4,500MW repeatedly cited as the grid’s limitation, demonstrates that the constraint originates at the generating stations rather than within the transmission network.

The company also disputed APGC’s installed capacity figure, noting that NERC officially recorded Nigeria’s installed generation capacity at 13,625MW, significantly lower than the over 15,500MW quoted in the report.

Defending the performance of the national grid, TCN stated that its verified transmission wheeling capacity has now reached 8,700MW, following extensive investments in transmission infrastructure across the country.

It noted that the grid has already demonstrated this capability by successfully wheeling a historic peak generation of 5,801.84MW on March 4, 2025, alongside a record daily energy delivery of 128,370.75MWh, achievements it said clearly invalidate claims that the grid is incapable of transmitting more than 4,500MW.

According to TCN, these improvements were driven by sustained investments, including the commissioning of 82 new power transformers between January 2024 and November 2025, adding approximately 8,500MVA of transformation capacity nationwide.

The company also highlighted major transmission projects such as the newly commissioned Ihovbor–Benin and Ihovbor–Ajaokuta 330kV Turn-In Turn-Out transmission lines, which have increased evacuation capacity in the Benin axis by more than 600MW while creating room to evacuate up to 1.5GW from the Azura Power Plant and the National Integrated Power Project at Ihovbor.

TCN argued that if the transmission network were indeed the principal obstacle, such continuous expansion and successful wheeling of record generation levels would not have been possible.

Instead, the company said the NERC report points overwhelmingly to generation-side challenges.

It cited the report’s Plant Availability Factor (PAF), which stood at only 32.72 per cent during the first quarter of 2026, indicating that more than two-thirds of Nigeria’s installed generation capacity was unavailable for dispatch because of gas shortages, equipment failures and maintenance outages.

Several generating stations recorded extremely poor availability levels, with some virtually out of service throughout the quarter.

TCN noted that these findings are consistent with APGC’s own acknowledgement that gas supply to thermal power plants had dropped to less than 43 per cent of daily requirements, describing the admission as further confirmation that generation constraints remain the sector’s primary challenge.

The transmission company further relied on NERC’s Load Factor data, which showed that the national grid successfully dispatched 92.26 per cent of all electricity declared available by generators during the quarter.

It argued that if between 2,500MW and 4,000MW were genuinely stranded daily because of inadequate transmission capacity, such a high dispatch rate would not have been achievable.

The report also showed that five power plants recorded a perfect 100 per cent load factor, meaning every megawatt they declared available was fully evacuated through the national grid.

On allegations that transmission losses account for over 1,200MW daily, TCN dismissed the claims, explaining that NERC’s audited Transmission Loss Factor for the period stood at 7.96 per cent, equivalent to about 327MW of average hourly losses.

The company clarified that much of the financial losses associated with transmission underperformance actually relate to contractual GenCo capacity penalties rather than physical energy losses on transmission lines.

TCN also addressed the partial grid disturbance of January 27, 2026, stating that NERC’s preliminary findings attributed the incident to inadequate reactive power support required to maintain voltage stability, rather than failure of transmission assets.

Although the company acknowledged responsibility for a separate system disturbance on January 23 involving a busbar separation at the Sapele Transmission Station, it stressed that the incident was isolated and should not be used to support broad claims that the national grid is incapable of evacuating available power.

The company further argued that the reported ₦2.28 trillion capacity payment challenge facing power generation companies is more closely linked to poor market collections and distribution company remittances than to transmission constraints.

According to TCN, NERC’s report shows electricity distribution companies recorded Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) losses of 37.44 per cent, far above regulatory targets, while remittance shortfalls to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc and the Market Operator continued to undermine the financial sustainability of the electricity market.

Reaffirming its commitment to strengthening Nigeria’s transmission infrastructure, TCN said it would continue investing in substations, transmission lines, grid automation and anti-vandalism measures to improve network reliability.

The company urged stakeholders and industry commentators to rely on verified regulatory data when discussing challenges in the electricity sector, insisting that the evidence contained in NERC’s First Quarter 2026 Report clearly shows that Nigeria’s most significant power constraint lies in generation availability rather than transmission capacity.