Mambilla Ruling Shields Nigeria’s Finances, Opens New Economic Opportunities — TSF By Raymond Enoch
The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has described Nigeria’s victory in the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration over the Mambilla Hydropower Project as a significant development for the country’s finances, power sector and wider economic prospects.
The ICC tribunal rejected claims brought against Nigeria by Sunrise Power, including the company’s $2.35 billion claim arising from the long-running dispute over the project. It also rejected a separate $400 million claim linked to a proposed settlement, bringing the total potential exposure addressed in the related proceedings to more than $3.38 billion.
In a statement signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, the TSF said the significance of the Mambilla ruling extends well beyond the courtroom, describing it as a development with important implications for Nigeria’s fiscal position and infrastructure ambitions.
“For Nigeria’s economy, the decision represents the avoidance of a potentially substantial financial liability, the recovery of legal costs and, potentially, the removal of a long-standing legal obstacle to one of the country’s most ambitious power projects,” the Forum said.
The group noted that the Mambilla project has for years remained one of Nigeria’s major untapped infrastructure and energy opportunities, adding that the prolonged legal dispute had constituted an additional obstacle to a project capable of contributing significantly to the nation’s electricity generation capacity.
According to the Forum, the ruling comes at a critical juncture in the Tinubu administration’s efforts to address longstanding structural and financial challenges in the electricity sector.
“The timing is particularly strategic as the Federal Government is currently implementing a structured plan to settle ₦3.3 trillion in verified legacy power-sector obligations,” it said.
Highlighting the scale of the arbitration outcome, TSF said the defeated Sunrise claims, put at $3.38 billion, exceeded the entire $2.3 billion legacy power-sector settlement programme.
“Eliminating this major liability prevents a massive financial drain, giving the government the necessary fiscal headroom to address inherited obligations and focus on sustainable power-sector reforms,” the Forum said.
TSF further argued that successful implementation of the Mambilla project could have economic implications far beyond an increase in electricity generation.
It said expanded and more reliable grid power could support the growth of manufacturing, mining, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors, while creating opportunities for new businesses, employment and investment across the economy.
The Forum also said the resolution of the arbitration sends a significant signal to international investors about Nigeria’s willingness and capacity to defend its economic interests through established international dispute-resolution mechanisms while maintaining contractual and legal discipline.
It urged the Federal Government to build on the arbitration outcome by accelerating the next phase of work on the Mambilla project, while ensuring transparency, commercial discipline and robust contractual safeguards throughout its implementation.
