Will AES Countries Rejoin ECOWAS? The Realities , the Stability and Question of Independence of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
By Raymond Enoch
The political landscape of West Africa has seen by experts and diplomatic channels as one that has a dramatic shift particularly with the emergence of the AES (Alliance of Sahel States) bloc, consisting of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. As the region grapples with both internal and external challenges, questions surrounding the future of these nations within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have intensified. Could the AES countries be on a path to reconciliation with ECOWAS? What is the role of diplomatic missions, such as that of Ghana’s former President John Dramani Mahama, in shaping the future of these states? And more crucially, where do the people of these countries stand – with the AES or ECOWAS?
For years, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have played a pivotal role in the regional politics of West Africa. However, the recent formation of the AES bloc following military coups in the respective countries has cast doubt on their future within ECOWAS, a regional body dedicated to promoting economic integration and political stability.
In an exclusive interview, political analyst Dr. Akimou Soro, based in Abidjan, discusses the chances of these countries rejoining ECOWAS. “While the door to re-engagement remains open, the political dynamics within these countries are complex. The AES bloc’s stance is one of self-determination and sovereignty, which can be seen as a challenge to ECOWAS’ attempts to enforce democratic norms,” Dr. Soro explains.
He adds that the key to the bloc’s potential return lies in “constructive dialogue.” However, ECOWAS’ response to the AES-led countries will likely depend on how these nations navigate their internal challenges and regional relationships.
One of the most significant diplomatic efforts in recent months has been the mission of former Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama, who was tasked with engaging the AES countries on behalf of ECOWAS. Mahama’s visit was meant to explore possibilities of reintegration and to mitigate the ongoing tensions.
Former diplomat Kwame Amoako, who has closely followed the mission, sheds light on the situation. “President Mahama’s mission was largely symbolic, a goodwill effort. However, the response from the AES bloc nations was lukewarm. There was a cautious reception, as these countries seem determined to uphold their recent sovereignty decisions,” Amoako notes.
The diplomatic mission did succeed in opening channels of communication, but it remains uncertain whether it will lead to meaningful outcomes. The current political leadership in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso is focused on safeguarding their new found political trajectory and any compromise with ECOWAS would require significant concessions, especially in terms of governance.
The people of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have been significantly affected by the political shifts and economic turbulence of recent years. A major concern for these citizens is whether they are better off within the ECOWAS framework or under the newly formed AES alliance.
In a series of interviews with citizens from Bamako, Niamey, and Ouagadougou, a divide becomes evident. “We are tired of foreign interference,” says Amina Toure, a student from Bamako. “The ECOWAS sanctions have hurt us more than helped us. The AES is giving us a chance to make our own decisions.”
On the other hand, Moussa Zakaria, a market trader in Niamey, believes in the value of regional cooperation: “ECOWAS has its flaws, but its role in maintaining regional stability and economic cooperation is undeniable. I fear that isolation could make things worse for us.”
This division highlights the struggle between national sovereignty and regional cooperation. The people, torn between these two approaches, are looking for solutions that address their immediate economic needs while ensuring long-term stability.
One of the most contentious issues in the AES bloc is the suppression or distortion of economic realities. According to various experts and analysts, the economic situation in the AES countries is dire, with widespread poverty, unemployment, and a fragile infrastructure.
Dr. Ali Kone, an economist based in Bamako, explains: “The AES governments often portray a message of economic independence and growth, but in reality, the region is struggling with inflation, a decline in foreign aid, and a lack of infrastructure investment. The economic situation is worse than what is being publicly acknowledged.”
International organizations, including the United Nations and the World Bank, have also raised concerns about the lack of transparency in these countries’ economic reporting. Despite the positive rhetoric coming from AES leaders, the reality on the ground tells a different story, with citizens continuing to suffer from the fallout of ongoing instability and economic mismanagement.
As Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso navigate their way through this turbulent history, the path forward remains uncertain. Reconciliation with ECOWAS may be possible and just feasible, but only if both sides can find a formidable common ground that respects the do to say sovereignty of the AES Countries while ensuring that the people’s well-being and regional cooperation are prioritized.
Ultimately, the future of the AES countries will depend on how well their governments under military can address internal challenges, rebuild their economies, and manage diplomatic relations. Whether they return to ECOWAS or remain steadfast in the AES alliance, the people of these nations are looking for leaders who will guide them toward a more stable and prosperous future.
