Uncertainties Cloud AES Countries’ Future as ECOWAS Celebrates 50th Anniversary.
By Raymond Enoch
As the ECOWAS Commission approaches its landmark 50th anniversary in May 2025, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over the future of the AES (Axis of self imposed suspended States) —Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. These ECOWAS Member, which were instrumental in founding the regional economic bloc in 1975, have distanced themselves from ECOWAS in recent years under guise of military regimes, thus casting a long shadow of darkness over their place within the regional institution.
This rift between the AES countries and ECOWAS has become more than just a matter of political egos; it has far-reaching implications for regional stability, economic cooperation, and the future trajectory of West Africa. The anniversary is not just a moment of reflection, but a critical juncture for both ECOWAS and its estranged members. What began as a vision of solidarity and shared prosperity among West African nations has been compromised by the internal political upheavals within these countries, and it is unclear whether these nations can reconcile their differences with ECOWAS in the next shortest possible time.
The anniversary of ECOWAS holds particular significance for the people of these countries. It marks a reminder of the historical and political bonds that once united them. The founding fathers—presidents from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—sought to create a regional framework that could foster economic growth, peace, and cooperation. Yet, the current military regimes have, over time, questioned the authority of ECOWAS, especially after sanctions were imposed on them following the coups, the sanctions they fully knew are contained in the Constitutive article and protocol of the ECOWAS.
In an attempt to bridge this divide, Ghana’s President, John Dramani Mahama, has taken the bold step of visiting the AES countries, meeting with their military leaders to urge them to return to the ECOWAS fold. His diplomatic efforts underscore the gravity of the situation, yet despite the personal and political risks involved, the response from the AES countries remains lukewarm. The military juntas seem to hold steadfast to their positions, unsure of the potential benefits of reintegration, and weighing the sovereignty of their newly established regimes against the value of rejoining a regional institution.
At the heart of this dilemma is the plight of the citizens in these nations. The protracted isolation from ECOWAS has exacerbated economic hardships, hindered development projects, and fostered a climate of uncertainty. But it also poses a serious question about the future of the ECOWAS employees hailing from these countries. Many have worked diligently within the Commission for years, contributing to regional development. Should these nations remain outside ECOWAS, what becomes of these dedicated individuals? How will their careers and livelihoods be impacted? These are critical concerns for both the institutions they serve and the individuals themselves.
As ECOWAS prepares for its 50th anniversary celebrations, the hope remains that the military leaders of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso will reconsider their positions and rejoin the organization. Reintegration would not only restore the bonds that once united these nations but also present an opportunity to shape a new future for West Africa—one that prioritizes collaboration over division. This reintegration could potentially reignite the collective spirit of ECOWAS, empowering it to address regional challenges with greater unity and resolve.
The anniversary of ECOWAS is a moment for reflection but also for action. The challenge for the AES countries is to evaluate their long-term interests and recognize the importance of regional cooperation for sustainable peace and development. For ECOWAS, the task is to maintain its relevance in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape while ensuring that the values of cooperation, unity, and shared prosperity continue to guide its vision.
As the anniversary draws nearer, the time for reconciliation and collaboration is now. West Africa’s future rests on the ability of its leaders to reflect on their shared history, overcome the barriers of ego and political division, and work together to project an ECOWAS that reflects the hopes and aspirations of all its member states. The call for unity has never been more pressing, and the stakes have never been higher.
Raymond Enoch is a political analyst and expert on West African regional cooperation, with experience in writing and researching African politics and international relations. Having worked with several institutions in the region, Enoch brings an insightful perspective on the dynamics of ECOWAS, the political landscapes of West Africa, and the intricate relationships that shape the continent’s future. His expertise in political negotiations and his deep understanding of regional development issues make him a respected voice in the discourse surrounding Africa’s evolving political environment
