Nigeria Gradually Reducing Dependence on Oil, Borrowing for FX — TSF By Raymond Enoch
The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has described the rise in Nigeria’s autonomous foreign exchange (FX) inflows to $70.54 billion in 2025 as a significant indication that the country is gradually reducing its dependence on crude oil earnings, government borrowing and Central Bank interventions to meet its foreign exchange needs.
The Forum, in a statement signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, said autonomous FX inflows increased by 25.12 per cent, from $56.38 billion in 2024, accounting for 64.21 per cent of the total $109.86 billion FX inflows recorded in 2025.
According to TSF, the growth was driven largely by non-oil export receipts, capital importation and over-the-counter market transactions, reflecting the increasing contribution of exporters, investors and private businesses to Nigeria’s foreign exchange supply.
The Forum said the development validated the foreign exchange reforms pursued by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under Governor Olayemi Cardoso.
It identified key reforms as the consolidation of the FX market, adoption of the willing-buyer, willing-seller framework, clearance of the verified $7 billion FX backlog, introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System and launch of the Nigerian FX Code aimed at strengthening transparency, ethical conduct and confidence in the market.
TSF added that tighter supervision of Bureau de Change operations and stronger enforcement of the repatriation of oil and non-oil export proceeds had contributed to improved liquidity, reduced market distortions and encouraged exporters and investors to channel foreign exchange through the formal market.
The Forum noted that aggregate FX inflows rose by 13.81 per cent to $109.86 billion in 2025, while net inflows also increased from $60.81 billion.
It further observed that inflows through the Central Bank declined by 2.08 per cent to $39.32 billion, largely due to lower receipts from government debt and foreign exchange swaps.
TSF said the development was particularly significant because it indicated that Nigeria’s foreign exchange position was increasingly being supported by exports, investment and productive private-sector activity rather than external borrowing and temporary financial arrangements.
> “The increase in autonomous inflows is a strong indication that Nigeria is beginning to earn more foreign exchange from non-oil exports, investment and private enterprise.
“This is the more sustainable pathway to economic stability because it broadens Nigeria’s sources of foreign exchange and reduces excessive dependence on volatile crude oil earnings, government borrowing and repeated Central Bank interventions,” the Forum stated.
According to TSF, stronger autonomous FX inflows would improve liquidity for manufacturers and importers, enhance access to foreign exchange for machinery and raw materials, encourage non-oil exporters and help reduce pressure on the naira.
It added that sustained growth in export earnings and capital inflows could strengthen Nigeria’s external reserves, boost investor confidence and reinforce macroeconomic stability.
The Forum, however, acknowledged that aggregate FX outflows also increased to $49.05 billion in 2025, partly reflecting higher transactions through autonomous channels and increased foreign currency obligations by businesses and investors.
It stressed the need to further expand non-oil exports and domestic production to ensure that foreign exchange inflows continue to outpace outflows.
TSF urged the Federal Government to deepen incentives for exporters, remove trade and logistics bottlenecks, strengthen local value addition and ensure full repatriation of export proceeds through the formal foreign exchange market.
The Forum maintained that the growing contribution of autonomous sources demonstrated that the Tinubu administration was gradually moving Nigeria away from a fragmented and intervention-dependent FX system towards a more transparent, credible and market-driven framework capable of attracting investment, supporting exports and strengthening the country’s external position.
