The Risk of a Three-Regional Bloc in West Africa: Implications for Economy, Security, and Development
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By Raymond Enoch
West Africa, is home to over 430 million people, is undergoing a profound political and economic shift that could reshape its future.
The recent decision by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to break away from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and establish the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) introduces significant risks for regional stability, economic growth, and development. While the move highlights political tensions, the long-term consequences could be far-reaching for both the breakaway states and the broader region and it’s people if not re- negotiated ..
ECOWAS has been a strong pillar of economic integration in West Africa, fostering trade, investment, and infrastructure development among its 15 member states.
The withdrawal of the AES countries challenges this framework, but it does not completely weaken ECOWAS, strength and capacity which retains 12 committed member ststes with larger and more diversified economies.
The economic impact on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger is of a particular concern. These landlocked countries rely heavily on coastal ECOWAS nations—such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Benin—for port access and trade routes. If political tensions escalate into trade restrictions, AES nations could face increased costs for imports and exports, supply chain disruptions, and potential economic isolation.
“The division could lead to higher tariffs, longer border delays, and economic instability for the AES countries,” warns Dr. Ayo Balogun, an economic analyst in Abuja. “Food security, employment, and industrial growth are at stake, with millions of people likely to be affected.”
While the AES countries may seek alternative trade agreements, their economic leverage remains limited compared to the larger and more integrated ECOWAS bloc. Their ability to negotiate favorable trade terms outside ECOWAS will be a key challenge.
The Sahel region is a battle ground for some of the world’s deadliest terrorist groups, including affiliates of ISIS and Al-Qaeda. ECOWAS has played a significant role in coordinating regional security efforts, intelligence-sharing, and military assistance. The withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger raises concerns about how these nations will handle escalating security threats without ECOWAS-backed security mechanisms.
The three countries have distanced themselves from Western military partnerships, particularly with France, opting for alternative security alignments, including cooperation with Russia. However, their ability to sustain long-term security efforts independently remains uncertain and worrisome to analysis and experts.
Security experts warn that terrorist groups could exploit political divisions, making it harder to coordinate counterterrorism responses. The absence of regional intelligence-sharing networks could weaken efforts to combat insurgencies, further destabilizing the region and increasing the risk of cross-border attacks.
Beyond economics and security, the AES split threatens vital development initiatives. ECOWAS has been instrumental in funding and implementing infrastructure projects, including roads, energy networks, and digital expansion. The loss of access to these resources could slow down progress in the AES states.
Additionally, ECOWAS supports numerous social programs, including youth empowerment, women’s economic inclusion, and healthcare initiatives. If Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger fully exit ECOWAS structures, they risk losing critical development funding and institutional support that has contributed to long-term progress.
Another major concern is the disruption of free movement within the region. Thousands of West Africans travel daily for business, education, and family reasons. If new border controls emerge between AES and ECOWAS states, it could create economic hardships, increase unemployment, and fuel migration crises.
Despite the current tensions, full diplomatic disengagement between ECOWAS and the AES bloc is not inevitable. Some analysts argue that the AES nations should seek dialogue rather than complete separation. While political grievances exist, pragmatic economic and security concerns may encourage both sides to maintain some level of cooperation.
The African Union (AU), the United Nations (UN), and regional leaders can play a crucial role in mediating the crisis. Finding a middle ground—perhaps through special agreements on trade, security, and infrastructure—could prevent a full-scale regional divide.
For West Africa to thrive, regional unity remains crucial. The departure of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger introduces significant challenges, but it also presents an opportunity for ECOWAS to reassess its strategies and strengthen its core institutions. The AES nations, meanwhile, must carefully navigate their political ambitions with economic and security realities.
A divided West Africa risks losing influence on the global stage, making it harder to attract foreign investments, combat insecurity, and sustain long-term development. Now, more than ever, leaders must prioritize the well-being of their populations over short-term political disagreements. The future of West Africa depends not on fragmentation, but on cooperation, stability, and shared progress.
Raymond Enoch is a journalist specializing in African politics, security, and development .He is based in Abuja, Nigeria.
