The AES Countries and the High Stakes of Military Rule: A Turning Point for ECOWAS.
By Raymond Enoch
In recent years, the countries who now refer to themselves as “AES” in West Africa—Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—have experienced a wave of military coups that have shocked the region and the world. Once bastions of cooperation in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), these countries have begun to chart their own, more authoritarian paths using military rule, with military leaders using their personal egos and power to push their countries away from ECOWAS, without considering the long-term consequences of these moves. This have raised profound questions about the future of the countries in the region.
This article explores the history, key figures, economic realities, and what this dramatic shift means for the AES countries and ECOWAS as a whole.
The AES countries—Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—have a complex history when it comes to military rule. The origins of military coups in these countries are tied to a range of factors, including political instability, economic stagnation, and frustrations with the perceived ineffectiveness of civilian governments in those countries over time.
In Mali, the roots of military intervention go back to 2012 when a military coup ousted President Amadou Toumani Touré after widespread dissatisfaction with his government’s handling of the insurgency in the north. Since then, military leadership has been a recurrent theme in Mali’s political life, with the most recent coup in August 2020, led by Colonel Assimi Goita, who claimed to take control to stabilize the country amid jihadist violence and governmental corruption.
In Burkina Faso, the military’s rise to power came as a reaction to growing unrest. In 2014, President Blaise Compaoré was ousted after protests against his attempts to extend his 27-year rule. While initially promising democratic reform, the political situation remained volatile, and in January 2022, Captain Ibrahim Traoré led another coup, citing the need for better leadership in the fight against extremist groups.
Niger faced similar issues, with increasing instability and mounting insecurity due to jihadist attacks. The latest coup occurred in July 2023, when General Mohamed Tchiani, head of the presidential guard, ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, citing a need to restore order in the face of growing terrorism and weak governance.
The question of whether the AES countries were “right” to stage military coups is one that continues to spark debate. On one hand, these military leaders argue that civilian governments have failed to deliver stability, security, and development, particularly in the face of rising insurgencies linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. They claim that the traditional political structures have failed to meet the needs of the people, and military leadership is necessary for urgent reforms.
On the other hand, critics argue that coups undermine the democratic process, destabilize countries, and erode the rule of law. ECOWAS, which has historically been a champion of democratic governance in West Africa, has condemned these military takeovers and imposed sanctions. The reality is that these coups create a precarious situation for the countries involved, with the potential for worsening instability and international isolation.
Now let us look at the key faces of the military coup in this countries.
Niger’s New Leader
General Mohamed Tchiani has emerged as one of the most significant figures in West African politics after staging a coup in Niger in July 2023. Tchiani, who had previously led the presidential guard, claims his actions were necessary due to the government’s failure to effectively combat jihadist insurgencies. Tchiani’s leadership has been marked by opposition to ECOWAS’s pressure to restore civilian rule, leading to his rejection of regional efforts to mediate the crisis.
In Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traoré became the country’s new ruler in 2022 after ousting then-President Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba. Traoré, a former military officer, framed his coup as a response to the government’s inability to handle the rising terrorist threat in the Sahel region. His leadership, while popular among some sections of the population, has faced both internal and external opposition, especially from ECOWAS.
In Mali, Colonel Assimi Goita led the coup in August 2020, removing President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. Goita’s justification for the coup was the government’s failure to deal with extremist groups and the widespread corruption within the administration. His rise to power has been followed by a consolidation of military rule, with Goita using the pretext of security and instability to tighten his grip, often rejecting ECOWAS interventions.
The AES countries’ military governments have been forcefully distancing themselves from ECOWAS, reflecting a growing resentment towards the regional body’s involvement in their internal affairs as if this true. There is no concrete realistic evidence to buttress this involvement by either ECOWAS or any institution to that effect.As these regimes continue to consolidate power, many citizens who have worked in the ECOWAS Commission for years are now facing uncertainties. ECOWAS’s economic and diplomatic influence in these countries is dwindling, and many of its employees from the AES countries now find themselves caught in the middle of this political turmoil.
The fate of these workers is precarious. Many may be forced into early retirement, reassignment, or even displacement as their countries withdraw from ECOWAS activities. The broader consequences for their families, careers, and livelihoods are dire, and the loss of this regional integration may leave these individuals cut off from the very connections that supported their professional lives all these years.
The question any keen observer would ask is are the citizens better ?The economic situation in the AES countries is undeniably difficult. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have faced significant economic challenges, including rising insecurity, food insecurity, and reduced foreign investment. While the military governments claim to be working to improve security and governance, the reality on the ground remains bleak for many citizens.
In Burkina Faso, for instance, the security situation has deteriorated significantly, leading to massive displacement and economic hardship for thousands of people. Similarly, in Niger, the ongoing violence has undermined the country’s development prospects. Despite the military’s promises of change, the average citizen has yet to see substantial improvements in their daily lives.
For all the military rhetoric about creating stability and fighting extremism, the reality is that the AES countries are trapped in a vicious cycle of insecurity, political instability, and economic stagnation. As ECOWAS’s influence wanes, as other see it ..But realities of soaring diplomacy and visits that the Commission President have received in the first quarter of 2025 shows that ECOWAS influence is on the rise rather than waning.
It is clear to me that these countries face an uncertain future with little in the way of tangible benefits for their populations to show other than propaganda of protecting sovereignity of their countries which Incidentally is not the issue.
Yes it’s a critical moment of reflections. It’s a also moment building and gathering momentum into the future .As the AES countries sever ties with ECOWAS, the organization finds itself in a wake up call. ECOWAS as an institution founded on the principles of unity, cooperation, and development, ECOWAS would have to continue to adapt to a new era where military rule would not be allowed to takes precedence over regional diplomacy. The military’s ego-driven decisions to break away from ECOWAS in a short run have far-reaching implications especially on the affected countries but generally we may have to pay as a region for their mistake. How? Certainly history and reality in the coming years would tell.
The coming months will be pivotal in determining whether ECOWAS can maintain its relevance and influence in West Africa, yes it will as events since January 29th 2025 suggest a stronger institution..
On the other hand we are likely to see whether these countries will chart a more isolationist, military-led path that risks further destabilizing the region. The fate of the AES countries hangs in the balance, with the people of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso caught between political instability and an uncertain future.
